https://x.com/blknoiz06/status/1803105607773225221
this may be helpful for people to see different altcoin charts & where we are currently at
charts like 1) 2) $BTC $SOL - have not broken beneath March lows, can still make argument for sideways consolidation before next leg up
3) $AVAX (most alts) breaking down beneath March lows after being stuck in a range for ~3 months, is this start of new downtrend? or capitulation before reclaim of key levels? are you betting on these alts regaining strength and this selloff currently being exaggerated?
4) $AAVE (older alts) never had an uptrend this cycle, still stuck in old ranges from the bear market
are you betting on these alts finding new narratives and eventually outperforming rest of the top 100? or are you betting on them continuing to underperform? what would be the catalysts for diff scenarios? (for ex. MKR with endgame plan)
most high cap memes like $PEPE & $WIF have charts similar to $BTC & $SOL, most of the newer infra like $TIA $ALTLAYER $DYM have charts similar to $AVAX
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many alts topped in March and have already been in a downtrend, you can definitely make an argument that they have already experienced most of their downside & now people are just realizing late, regardless, think you will need strong narratives to choose the right alts which outperform from here
so three main scenarios from here
1) $BTC & $SOL maintain their strength as outliers, current lows of past few months consolidation hold ($58k-60k) & ($110-120), other alts have priced in most of their downside and bottom when majors do after some further sideways price action (((i am currently in this camp, just believe sideways/down chop until late Q3/Q4)))
2) again the main risk, is that $BTC & $SOL are not outliers, and they eventually catch up to the downside of the rest of the market
in this scenario is when we would see really ugly capitulation across the board, because it would mean that they begin their downtrends like the rest of the market, likely bottom ($85-100), ($48k-$52k)
3) possibility that entire market is topped, personally think this is a very low chance, but yes obviously this is the worst one & would mean that $TOTAL3 which is the total market cap of all altcoins only reached 50% of its prior peak last cycle
this just seems extremely ludicrous to me, & i think that the more likely scenario is just extended sideways while we see more app development happen across the board in the space with $BTC + $ETH ETF flows continuing & we just passively trend up alongside stocks
if you've noticed none of this analysis included anything on macro or stocks which still have not sold off hard, so that is a risk as well, just giving insight into what I think the current technical analysis looks like
Jun 18, 2024 View on X →
Tuesday, June 18, 2024